Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
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6
Ṁ1922026
60%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants
paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983
GPT4 scored only 15% compared to 92% for humans
I will resolve based on open source results or official reputable company announcements/papers.
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Good market. A good resolution source might be the average score on the test set https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard
I would be interested in a market that ends at the end of 2029.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
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