Will an AI system beat humans in the GAIA benchmark before the end of 2025?
8
110Ṁ2532026
65%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
GAIA: a benchmark for General AI Assistants
paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12983
GPT4 scored only 15% compared to 92% for humans
I will resolve based on open source results or official reputable company announcements/papers.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Good market. A good resolution source might be the average score on the test set https://huggingface.co/spaces/gaia-benchmark/leaderboard
I would be interested in a market that ends at the end of 2029.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI score 1st place on International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2025?
34% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
77% chance
By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will an AI system beat human performance in Trackmania Tool-Assisted Speedrunning by the end of 2025?
6% chance
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2025?
86% chance
What will be the best AI performance on Humanity's Last Exam by December 31st 2025?
Will artificial general intelligence be achieved they the end of 2025 ?
16% chance