Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
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According to the noted intellectual, Elon Musk.
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Already is in many ways. What do we mean exactly? Like embodied AI using commonsense? Estimation? Throwing something accurately? Nice question though!!! I will consider
@Predictor So this market is along the lines of "Will Elon Musk deem his own prediction to be correct?"
The use of "probably" makes this vague it could mean is the AI probably smarter, it could mean probably by this date... All questions on here relate to subjective judgement of probability, so "Will AI be smarter than any one human by the end of 2025?" would be much clearer IMO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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