What will be true of an Apple event held in March 2024, the one rumored by this market?:
Consider adding answers such as:
Exactly when/if the event will be held
What products/features will be announced
And any other characteristics of the announcements and/or event itself
If an event does not happen in March 2024, any answers related to the date or otherwise able to be answered true or false will resolve. Answers assuming an event to have occurred in March (ie product launches) will resolve N/A. See additional details here.
Make your answers as understandable as possible with just the text so traders don't have to read the comments to know how something will resolve.
I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them more clear. I may N/A submissions for any reason.
Evidence provided in comments is strongly encouraged to facilitate speedy resolution. I reserve the right to resolve NO any answer for which sufficient evidence is not provided, though will do what I can to resolve independently.
Other mods are welcome to resolve answers in this market.
Description borrowed from @Joshua's great prop bet markets. π»
Related questions
Gurman now thinks the event might be in April. Selling my bets in response.
https://www.macrumors.com/2024/03/11/new-ipads-end-of-march-or-april-gurman/
@traders explicit guidance on how I'll be resolving this market, unless I post an update otherwise tagging @traders:
I'll rely on @probajoelistic's market about whether an event will occur as a pre-requisite for this market (for the most part, see additional details below). He has helpfully stated that he will not consider press releases as an "event", but would consider one or more live video announcement (i.e. doesn't have to be a live in-person announcement) as "events".
Given the above, here's how I'll resolve the answers on this market:
If @probajoelistic's market resolves NO or N/A, I will resolve N/A any answers on this market not relating to details about how or when an event would occur (i.e. an answer of "an event will not happen in March" would be resolvable as YES/NO, but "A new iPad is announced [at the event]" would resolve N/A since there was no event for it to be announced at.)
If @probajoelistic's market resolves YES, I will resolve answers on this market according to what is mentioned in said event. I will resolve YES for a live mention of anything announced in press releases leading up to the event. For example, "A new iPad is announced" would resolve YES if mentioned at an event, even though it was technically announced via press release earlier in the month.
Answers will remain unresolved until they resolve YES due to an event happening or until the end of March, at which point they will resolve N/A or NO according to the above. Leaving these open until the end of March will account for the possibility that an event occurs before the end of March even after press releases/announcements have occurred.
Please ask any clarifying questions in the comments.
@dglid With that definition, shouldnβt things that are already announced resolves Yes? Such as new laptop and watch bands?
@esusatyo Not quite - they weren't announced at an event (per Joel's definition from his market). This market is about what is true of an event.
If those things are marketed at an event in March, then they'll resolve YES, otherwise they'll resolve N/A because no event occurred.
I think this should resolve yes too.
https://www.macrumors.com/2024/03/04/apple-refreshes-cases-and-watch-bands/
Apple released new MacBook Airs via press release (rather than event) today. https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2024/03/apple-unveils-the-new-13-and-15-inch-macbook-air-with-the-powerful-m3-chip/
What Is the event is a press release or video only? https://www.macrumors.com/2024/03/03/no-apple-event-for-new-ipads-macs-gurman/
@esusatyo if @probajoelistic βs linked market in the description resolves βYESβ, then Iβll resolve as if the series of videos/announcements was an event. If that market resolves βNOβ or βN/Aβ, then Iβll stick to what I said earlier in the other comment thread and updated the description with: Iβll N/A any answers not related to timing or location or an event.
1) @esusatyo asking the surprisingly relevant question 12 hours(?) before an Apple press release!
2) I still expect that there will be an iPad event, although my market disagrees atm (/probajoelistic/will-apple-have-a-product-release-e ) Mark Gurman reported that all the releases will be press releases which seems a little surprising.
3) For that market, just press releases resolve as NO, but a live video resolves YES. I've updated the description to specify that explicitly.
@esusatyo Any answers related to the date or otherwise not requiring the event to happen in March to be true/false will resolve. Any other answers that require the event to happen in March (ie product launches) will N/A. Thanks for requesting clarification.