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My Pre-Event Predictions

/esusatyo/-will-apple-have-a-product-release-e68160ad8a68

• Apple will have an event Me: 99.9% Manifold: 99%

(This Market)

• New Pencil Me: 96% Manifold: 93%

  • Literally in the event graphics

• Landscape camera Me: 85% Manifold: 83%

  • It’s still unclear how they will do this and keep the magnetic charging for the Pencil on the side, but sites seem to agree on this one

• M4 chip Me: 70% Manifold: 82%

  • This seems oddly soon, but we don’t really have a long track record for Apple’s new chip timing

• “Squeeze” Me: 85% Manifold: 81%

  • Code leaks are pretty reliable rumors

• New keyboard Me: 90% Manifold: 80%

• Find My Me: 40% Manifold: 78%

  • Can’t find the source of this rumor

  • MacRumors doesn’t mention this

• Haptic Feedback Me: 85% Manifold: 69%

  • AppleInsider “Likely”

  • Mark Gurman

• Interchangeable tips Me: 60% Manifold: 43%

  • AppleInsider “Possible”

• Apple TV Me: 30% Manifold: 41%

  • Might be too off topic even if it is ready

  • Expected soon

• New HomePod Me: 25% Manifold: 34%

  • Might be too off topic even if it is ready

• 12.9” Air with mini-LED Me: 15% Manifold: 30%

  • The source of the mini-LED rumor updated to saying the opposite

• MagSafe 40% Manifold: 30%

  • Been a while since we heard anything about this

/probajoelistic/-apple-let-loose-may-7th-event-prop-018f52e9fac3

• Real artists Me: 85% Manifold: 90%

  • This just kind of makes sense for an event with a new Pencil

• OLED display Me: 95% Manifold: 87%

• Tim Cook walking outside Me: 70% Manifold: 82%

  • Short event, but this like always happens and he just needs to take one step

• M4 (dup) Manifold: 82%

• 1.5M Me: 50%?? Manifold: 80%

  • I don’t know how to even check the viewers for the other events

• Longer than 31 minutes: Me: 90% Manifold: 79%

  • Rumors got the time right last time

  • “About 35 minutes” seems right and implies >31

• “Good Morning” Me: 80% Manifold: 78%

• Other new input Me: 25% Manifold: 78%

  • Maybe color detection?

• “AI” or “Artificial Intelligence” Me: 85% Manifold: 75%

• “Our Best” Me: 70% Manifold: 71%

• Vision Pro Europe date Me: 60% Manifold: 66%

• Named Apple Pencil Pro Me: 60% Manifold: 61%

  • Sometimes they just have placeholder names

  • But this was just before the event

• Erase with other side Me: 35% Manifold: 41%

  • Just speculation. No actual rumors that I am aware of

• Vision Pro compatibility Me: 50% Manifold: 40%

  • Just speculation. Maybe I’m even overconfident about this

• “One more thing” Me: 20% Manifold: 31%

  • Based on those words being said. Apple can’t use this every event

• Manufacturing process + British accent Me: 10% Manifold: 31%

• Color sensor Me: 10% Manifold: 24%

  • Are there any rumors about this?

/esusatyo/will-apple-release-an-ipad-air-with

Larger size Me: 95% Manifold: 96%

/nullnullffd1/will-apple-release-an-oled-ipad-by

OLED Me: 95% Manifold: 95%

/alexlitz/will-apple-vision-pro-have-support

Pencil use with Vision Pro Me: (dup) Manifold: 33%

/esusatyo/will-new-ipad-air-in-2024-cost-more

Base Air price increases Me: 40% Manifold: 59%

/SkyVelleity/which-new-generation-of-apple-produ

• iPad Air Me: 98% Manifold: 95%

• iPad Pro Me: 98% Manifold: 95%

• iPad nothing Me: 10% Manifold: 33%

• iPad Mini Me: 10% Manifold: 12%

Results

Manifold did great. I did even slightly better.

• I was closer to correct on 29 out of 36 questions (81%)

• I was off by 27% on average. Manifold was off by 32% on average

• My Brier Score was 0.124. Manifold’s Brier Score was 0.157

We might have a YES bias

• 17 out of 36 markets resolved YES (47%)

• My average prediction was 60%. Manifold’s average prediction was 66%

@probajoelistic you know what they say: Nothing Ever Happens

New iPad Pro rumored to debut with M4 chip (AppleInsider "Possible")

Apple Pencil coming on May 7 could buzz users with haptic feedback (AppleInsider "Likely")

Apple Pencil 3 leak claims changeable magnetic tips are on the way (AppleInsider "Possible")