Tokyo-based research lab sakana.ai has recently (as of August 2024) released an AI research agent which they claim is able to automate the entire ML research lifecycle - proposing experiments, writing code, running that code and collecting results. (https://x.com/SakanaAILabs/status/1823178623513239992)

At least in theory, this means that we have entered the era where an AI could plausibly publish a paper all by itself, without any coauthors.

This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2025, a scientific paper has been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal with an AI (whether sakana's or not) as its sole author and that paper has received at least 100 citations in other papers published in peer-reviewed journals.

The paper does not need to be AI-related. Citation counts will be checked on OpenAlex: https://openalex.org