Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
43
1kṀ1499
2026
22%
chance

AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
58% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
40% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
75% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
31% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?
6% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
69% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
63% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
74% chance
Sort by:

The date on this is wrong

How much prompting is allowed for this to still resolve YES? If human researchers give the AI their notes to write into a paper, does that count?

@HarlanStewart Yes, your example would count.

Does this include only the flagship journal, or also things like "Nature Physics"?

@ScottLawrence Only the flagship journal.

People are also trading

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
58% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
40% chance
Will a published research paper be revealed to have been written by an AI before 2025?
75% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
31% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2025?
6% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
69% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
63% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
74% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules