In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations? | Manifold

In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?

Technology AI Technical AI Timelines AI Alignment

Basic

11

Ṁ88

2030

1D

1W

1M

ALL

18%

Attention is all you need

38%

Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognition

44%

Other

Resolves to the option with the highest total (aka cumulative) number of citations on 1/1/2030 according to google scholar.

Papers must be about new AI techniques. Not other topics like applications or history. Meta-Analyses don't count either.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ10 Other YES

Is this citations during 2030 or cumulative evaluated at 12/31/2030 (or 1/1/2030)?

@Mactuary it's the cumulative number of citations on 1/1/2030 (which is the market close date)

Attention is all you need has 120k citations on google scholar

yea, but resnet has 200k

Dang!

bought Ṁ1 Other YES

you did not know?

Nah I'm not actually that across the literature. Hence the market!

it's actually a great thing to bet on, that if attention will have more citations than resnet in 2030

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Will an AI get gold on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?

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Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?

Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?

Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?

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