Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2026?
6
50
Ṁ150
2025
32%
chance

When integrated with tools such as formal proof verifiers, internet search, and symbolic math packages, I expect, say, 2026-level AI, when used properly, will be a trustworthy co-author in mathematical research, and in many other fields as well.

for 2026

Resolves YES if a real professional mathematician claims this happened for them, unless consensus of other experts is that it didn't happen

https://unlocked.microsoft.com/ai-anthology/terence-tao/

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bought Ṁ20 NO

Betting no here as this seems pretty close to AGI, and my (generally quick) timelines are not so quick as to put near-AGI at 2026.

Low mana value bet/lack of limit orders though as I don't know much at all about writing mathematical research papers.

shouldn't this close at the end of 2026?

I interpreted "before 2026" as "before Jan 1 2026", clarifying titles(s) now

@jacksonpolack that makes sense. I was referring to the use of 2026 in the quote by Terrence Tao which claims that this will happen in 2026. But < 2026 is also a very valid and interesting question.

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