will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
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Dec 31
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I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.

Also please comment if you think I've missed one:

  • OpenAI

  • Anthropic

  • Meta

  • Amazon

  • DeepMind/Google

  • DeepSeek

  • Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)

  • Mistral

  • XAI (Elon musk lab)

  • Nvidia

  • Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included:

    • Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper.

    • The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria.

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@traders see also

https://manifold.markets/BoydKane/will-a-paper-released-before-2030-b

reposted

Relevant xeet

https://xcancel.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1627400198929682432#m

See also https://manifold.markets/ken/will-an-ai-coauthor-a-mathematics-r

Someone will do this just to be the first to do it

@zsig IMO it's unlikely that a frontier lab will risk their reputation on this, but place your bets/make your markets to prove me wrong

Does a preprint count?

@MalachiteEagle Good question. I'm assuming the wording "release a paper" vs "publish a paper" implies preprints are included. Note that most publishers don't allow AI to be listed as an author because it can't take responsibility for authorship.

  1. https://publicationethics.org/guidance/cope-position/authorship-and-ai-tools

  2. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.06.19.24309148v1.full

@MalachiteEagle Yes, preprints such as arxiv will count, for the reasons cited by @WilliamGunn . I'm more interested in whether the big labs think an AI significantly contributed to a paper, and less interested in journal politics

Which labs do you count as frontier?

@TheAllMemeingEye see updated description, I'm open to further suggestions

@BoydKane thanks 👍

A few suggestions based on LM Arena (https://lmarena.ai/)

  • Qwen seems to be a model name, I think the lab is Alibaba

  • StepFun

  • Zhipu

  • XAI

  • 01-AI

  • Nexus Flow

  • Nvidia

  • Ai2

@TheAllMemeingEye I'll make the Qwen -> Alibaba edit, although I've never heard of the others except for XAI and Nvidia. I'm open to changing frontier labs to be defined as "any lab with a model in the top XYZ of models on lmarena.ai"? Maybe that's better, and less subjective than what I've currently got

@BoydKane yeah in this case I was just listing labs that had models higher up on the leaderboard than the best model from the worst performing lab you had previously listed (in this case Amazon)

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