I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.

Also please comment if you think I've missed one:

• OpenAI

• Anthropic

• Meta

• Amazon

• DeepMind/Google

• DeepSeek

• Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)

• Mistral

• XAI (Elon musk lab)

• Nvidia

• Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included:

  • Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper.

  • The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria.

• Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many venues, including arXiv, explicitly ban AIs from being listed as authors. This is a relevant factor traders should be aware of when assessing the likelihood of resolution.