I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
OpenAI
Anthropic
Meta
Amazon
DeepMind/Google
DeepSeek
Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
Mistral
XAI (Elon musk lab)
Nvidia
Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included:
Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper.
The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria.
Update 2026-05-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Many venues, including arXiv, explicitly ban AIs from being listed as authors. This is a relevant factor traders should be aware of when assessing the likelihood of resolution.
Update 2026-07-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For authorship, the byline (where regular human authors are listed) is what counts — not acknowledgements. When versions differ across platforms, the most official PDF/research paper will be used.
1,000Does it count if the paper is only listed as having an AI coauthor e.g. in a version available on the company's website, while the arxiv version has no AI coauthor?
@VanessaKosoy I'll go based off of the front-page author listing, which I'm fairly confident will be the same on the website and any associated papers. But where there's a difference, I'll look at the most-official PDF/research paper. e.g. listing an AI in the acknowledgements doesn't count, the AI must be listed in the by-line where regular human authors would go.