will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
11
1kṀ745
2030
71%
chance

I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers. I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.

Also please comment if you think I've missed one:

  • OpenAI

  • Anthropic

  • Meta

  • Amazon

  • DeepMind/Google

  • DeepSeek

  • Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)

  • Mistral

  • XAI (Elon musk lab)

  • Nvidia

  • Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Preprints Included:

    • Preprints (e.g., arXiv) count as a valid form of releasing a paper.

    • The focus is on whether the big labs deem that an AI significantly contributed to the paper, rather than on traditional journal criteria.

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