I (Tamay Besiroglu) bet the mathematician Daniel Litt that the best AI models in March of 2030 would be capable of generating math papers in Number Theory at the level of quality of papers published in Annals today (i.e. 2025). https://x.com/tamaybes/status/1899262088369106953?s=46
The AI would receive no detailed guidance relevant to the mathematics research, and is required to accomplish this task autonomously.
The AI system(s) are granted a total budget of $100k in inference compute per paper.
This bet would be resolved on the basis of Daniel Litt’s judgment.
1,000@MaxMorehead Check your biases folks, Daniel Litt is neither dumb nor an AI skeptic.
FWIW I think his implied odds are too low too.
But the gap is wild!
@jgyou to be clear, I'm saying the market is too high, since even Tamay thinks this is (slightly) less than 50%.
@Bayesian This is a bit like saying in 1999 that people who have historically made money in the stock market in the age of the world wide web think that Internet is going to change everything. The Internet did change everything, but a lot of the stocks were overvalued.
Manifold hasn't existed for that long. I think strong prediction performance across many decorrelated domains (or over a long period of time) is a greater signal to me than doing well on Manifold. And while people who predicted the current state of AI deserve a lot of additional weight in their opinions, but I don't see any particularly strong meta-level reason to be convinced that the miscalibration of the past will continue in the future. So we are left to think mainly at the object-level at the state of AI science and the arguments for different AI timelines.
I do think that world-changing AI is quite possibly coming soonish, but probably not by 2030 (though I also think this market is a lot weaker than some "AGI" definitions).
@mathvc One of my looser bets, basically I expect math to kind of just be solved (to >human level) by reasoning models scaling up + modestly impactful new techniques by 2030. It's something that requires 0 real world interaction and can be verified post-facto as true/false.
No knowledge of Annals or modern frontier math research.