Expansion of the title as follows. Not exhaustive.
The paper or report must be submitted on arxiv
Must have one or more turning award winners (counting as on the date of this question creation)
The report can suggest or imply or straight up claim that an AI system is conscious. If it's "likely conscious" on the scale, then we will resolve this to yes.
I'll not bet on this market
Btw, this market was inspired from this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.08708 which has Yoshua Bengio as an author and the abstract says that the current systems according to their analysis are not conscious
Our analysis suggests that no current AI systems are conscious, but also suggests that there are no obvious technical barriers to building AI systems which satisfy these indicators