Raid tonight was bigger but ultimately didn’t seem to hold any territory.

@Panfilo IDF says they stayed there overnight

@Domer Yep saw that Osint post right after this

@Domer And then left? Was there a successful counterattack?

@DanPowell They're still there rn

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1717957540141486104?s=20

I'm assuming this market will resolve on Nov 1st, Israeli time?

https://archive.ph/mSoBo

Market on what time of day will it occur. I get the impression people expect early morning, but am not sure how strong that expectation is.

I opened a new market to resolve the next few days given announcements from the Israeli Military.

https://manifold.markets/gpt4/when-would-israel-launch-a-ground-i

When would Israel launch a ground operation in Gaza?

Date will be determined based on Israel's Time Zone.

New market with updated bins and a separate bin for "no offensive in 2023": https://manifold.markets/connorwilliams97/when-will-the-fullscale-israeli-gro-18f9e903fb10

No ground invasion resolves to N/A or to 'Nov or later'?

@Simon74fe I'm flexible on this. What do you all prefer?

@connorwilliams97 Nov or later - I've always thought this includes "Never"

@PlainBG yeah me too

@manifoldaccount I'm a veteran of prediction markets, they don't usually allow for resolving to NA (unlike this app) so the "X or later" tends to include "never".

Thanks for feedback. It will resolve to "Nov or later" and I will update the description to specify this.

@connorwilliams97 since the market closes Oct 31, it's a moot point regardless.

I'll make another market tomorrow, with updated time buckets, if the offensive does not begin by then.

It's rainy till the 20th so bought up Oct 20-25.

How do you define “substantial forces”? 1,000 troops? 10,000? 100,000?

@tg it's less about the number of troops and more about acting with clear intention to take and hold territory.