When will the full-scale Israeli ground offensive (not isolated raids) in Gaza begin? (Updated bins into November)
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resolved Oct 28
100%98%
Oct 25-27
0.0%
Oct 18
0.0%
Oct 19
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Oct 20
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Oct 21
0.1%
Oct 22
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Oct 23
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Oct 24
1.1%
Oct 28-31
0.3%
Nov 1-5
0.1%
Nov 6-10
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Nov 11 or later
0.4%
No full-scale ground offensive in 2023

When will Israeli forces begin the major offensive into Gaza? This means sending substantial forces with the purpose of beginning to take territory and extricate Hamas from that territory, as opposed to isolated small raids like the ones on Oct 13-14.

Resolution will use the Israeli time zone.

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I don't see any sources saying that there has been a ground invasion or ground offensive. The most new outlets are willing to say is that there are "expanded ground operations." Given that it's been 18 hours and news outlets are surely itching to say that Israel has invaded, and yet there hasn't been any reporting which explicitly calls this a ground offensive, I think this was prematurely resolved.

@xyz AP says:

"'We moved to the next stage in the war,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in remarks broadcast Saturday. “Last evening, the ground shook in Gaza. We attacked above ground and underground. ... The instructions to the forces are clear. The campaign will continue until further notice.'

His comments signaled a gradual ramping up toward what is expected to evolve into an all-out ground offensive in northern Gaza."

This doesn't seem any different from their pre-Oct 27 posture.

The offensive underway satisfies the requirements I set out, as I see it. I'm now searching for a definitive source on what hour/day it started before I resolve. If anyone has this info, please reply to me with it. Thanks.

@connorwilliams97 Check out Wikipedia and sources linked from there:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war

Invasion of Gaza Strip (27 October–present)

On 27 October, internet and mobile phone services in Gaza were almost completely cut off as Israel intensified its bombing campaign.[288] Following this, IDF launched a large-scale ground incursion into the Gaza Strip. Clashes between Hamas and IDF were reported near the towns of Beit Hanoun and Bureij.[289]

On 28 October, Israel said that the units deployed inside Gaza Strip on Friday night were still on the ground.[290]

"Friday night" would be the 27th. I'll be trying to figure out the exact time, some discussion in the comment thread of my market indicates it was close to 9pm local time.

@chrisjbillington This is the source cited for the “full scale invasion” claim: it neither uses the word invasion nor describes events that are clearly an invasion. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67225204

Seems clear that Oct 27th should win at this point. IDF said the tanks entered Gaza last night and are still there as of the morning.

@Domer https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-releases-footage-of-troops-tanks-operating-in-gaza-during-expanded-operations/

"The Israel Defense Forces releases footage of ground forces, including infantry troops, combat engineering forces and tanks, operating in the Gaza Strip overnight and this morning.

The forces are still in Gaza at this hour, operating deeper into the Hamas-run territory than previous limited incursions."

It's been October 28th in Israel for 5 hours and I don't see any high confidence reporting that the ground invasion has started.

What's it with the Israelis and their just around midnight operations. I mean I get it from a tactical perspective but c'mon...

@sarius take this with a grain of salt, but as far as I can tell, it started at least a couple hours before midnight in Israel. I think the real question to me is whether this counts as the full-scale invasion. Israel seems to be referring to it as "increased raid activity," but I guess we won't know for a while whether that's true or not

via Axios: A senior Israeli official told Axios the IDF incursion that began on Friday is mostly taking place in the northern Gaza Strip. The official added that it is much bigger and more significant than the limited raids that have taken place in recent days.

and: Two Israeli officials said the decision "to expand" ground operations in Gaza was made by the Israeli war cabinet on Thursday night local time after talks on a possible hostage release reached a stalemate.

So I think it's fair to say that this probably constitutes the beginning of the "major offensive" as laid out in the description. I would note that we are probably not going to see an "all out offensive" but more so a targeted (still major) expansion of the current operations, as Israel cuts into northern Gaza from the East into central Gaza (Bureij) and mostly from the North into central Gaza (Beit Hanoun).

@sarius I still think it's a little gray, it certainly doesn't seem like a small raid, but it also may not be with "the purpose of beginning to take territory and extricate Hamas from that territory."

e.g. if they eventually pull back and don't re-enter for a day, would this not just constitute a larger raid with the purpose of preparing for the ground offensive and not actually starting it?

@georgeyw It's up to @connorwilliams97 of course, but if the IDF don't stay in Gaza for a week or more, it would feel like not a Yes yet in the spirit of the question to me.

Probably wise to bet on next two weeks (with uniform distribution over the dates). Thus far the best strategy has been to bet repeatedly on delay, but domestic political pressure + repeated public statements + IDF challenge of sustaining readiness all point to the invasion being imminent. Moreover, even if IDF do not feel ready and face pushback from the US, they will act to do something, which will still count as a "major offensive" for this market.

lukresboughtṀ10Oct 24 YES

@lukres know anything?

@Daniel_MC Nope, just got fooled by Twitter rumours 😔

@lukres sad times!

They’ve been slow-playing the expansion for half a century, they know that an invasion now repeats Warsaw.

Surely the IDF doesn't go in during Sabbath?

Not guaranteed but just a thought.

I do not think this is going to happen. More likely there will be a prisoner swap.