Resolves to the time of day, local time in Israel, when Israeli ground troops first cross the border into the Gaza Strip as part of a ground invasion, or to "No invasion in 2023" if this does not occur by end of year. Smaller raids that are not part of an invasion will not count.
If it's not clear from reputable sources after approximately a week what time of day the invasion began, only that it did, then the market will resolve to an even split of all options that cannot be reasonably ruled out.
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@chrisjbillington Think the risk is to earlier than 6pm if anything, but seems like a amicable resolution under a time constraint.
@chrisjbillington it seems pretty clear now that this was the start of an invasion, do you feel like there's enough evidence to resolve to 6-9pm? There is a more recent NYT article that also cites "after 6pm" here: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/30/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-invasion-secrecy.html, though that's probably the same underlying source (but suggests that there hasn't been new information to contradict it)
@georgeyw Yes, it's the start of the invasion for the purposes of this market - the 72h threshold I set for withdrawal passed.
If I had to resolve now it would be to 6-9pm, but I said in the case of uncertainty I'd wait 7 days, so I'll follow that. That's in about 48h, I'll set the market close time to then.
Pure speculation, but here's an argument for around 7:30pm local time:
- An internet/communications blackout happened around that time: https://twitter.com/netblocks/status/1717942556703551590 (time stamped 7:33pm local time)
- Paltel (I think the last major internet provider still operating in Gaza) announced the blackout happened due to bombing of the last fiber routes out of Gaza: https://x.com/Paltelco/status/1718007432494911717?s=20
Israel has seemed pretty intentional in its bombing targets so far, and they'd probably know where these fiber lines were. Seems like too much of a coincidence for them to have accidentally bombed the lines right around when the ground offensive started, and cutting off comms is a pretty obvious military strategy. So, cut off communications, then commence wider ground operations shortly after?
This wouldn't definitively disprove post-9pm, but 1.5 hours sounds like a long time to wait when it was almost immediately clear that the attempt to cutoff comms worked.
@georgeyw I've found this one OSINT twitter account (no clue how reputable they are), saying "gunfire and clashes heard in northern Gaza." at 8:50PM. This is the only mention I've found of anything before 9pm.
There's a link to a live stream in the thread, and someone else saying at 8:51PM that the gunfire is "loud and clear on streams":
If anyone wants to scrub through this video looking for evidence, the live stream started at unix timestamp 1698421689 according to Youtube metadata, which corresponds to 18:48:09 local time in Israel. So you can use that to figure out what time the timestamps in the video correspond to.
yt-dlp -j --skip-download https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4k6c5QW7iM | jq '.release_timestamp'
1698421689@chrisjbillington I jumped around a bit and didn't catch any gunfire on that stream, but it sounds like the streamer says at 1:00:35 or so (~7:48 local) that they heard intermittent small arms fire.
Here's also an AFP stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2a5TsMF0Uo&t=8385s (timestamp 2:19:45 in case that doesn't work). I think I hear a few (very faint) bursts of small arms fire at that timestamp. The timestamp for this stream's upload is 1698415713, so at 2:19:45 in the video it's around 7:28pm local time. I didn't look around for other examples or try to figure out when exactly it starts in the AFP stream.
@Domer Interesting. What evidence do you know of, other than the "early evening" comment from the IDF?
@chrisjbillington Someone who would (probably) know said point blank it started at 5:30pm on Friday. They're not a reporter. It's not definitive yet, and I am hoping we get an official account of troop movements. I believe a lot of reporters know exactly what has happened, but are in a blackout and cannot report it!
@Domer We've also got the NYT citing anonymous military officers saying "after 6pm":
Three military officers, all of whom spoke anonymously to discuss a sensitive matter, said that a significant Israeli force had entered northern Gaza after 6 p.m. on Friday with tanks, armored vehicles, infantry and military engineers.
@chrisjbillington I'd defer to reports of that nature, for sure. I'm still thinking pre-6pm is possible, but won't be pushing it unless I get sourcing. Hopefully we get a definitive outline of events.
I'm going to give it 72h from the time they entered, which looks to be approximately 9pm Oct 27th, local time. 72h later is 9pm Oct 30th (6pm Oct 30th, UTC). If it looks like the troops haven't withdrawn or been replaced by other troops by then, then this incursion will officially count as the start of the invasion for the purposes of this market. Alternately, characterisations by Israel of these or other troop movements as an "invasion" before the 72h are up, provided the currently-present troops haven't withdrawn or been replaced, will also make it official.
Then if we can figure out which side of 9pm local time the troops entered the Gaza strip, the market will resolve accordingly, otherwise 7 days later (after 6pm Nov 3rd UTC) I'll resolve to a 50:50 split between the 6pm–9pm and 9pm–12am buckets.
(obviously I'll resolve to something completely different if evidence comes to light that it was a different time after all)
@chrisjbillington The IDF is saying they've been in Gaza since "early Friday evening." I do not think 9pm is early evening. Based on this, 9pm bucket seems very likely wrong, and 6-9pm bucket seems probably correct, with a small chance of before 6pm (because the sun sets so early in Israel). We may get clarity soon.
Clarification: I'm going to count it as an "invasion" for the purposes of this market if a large number of troops enter and the intent is to maintain a presence thereafter. News reports are of "thousands" entering Gaza in the past hours. I will count this as large enough. To count as an invasion, either these troops must largely remain in Gaza for a time, or be replenished by others if they leave - there needs to be an ongoing presence.
If there are announcements to the effect that this is indeed the start of an invasion, I'll resolve to the best estimate of when it occurred (or wait for a better estimate, if it seems likely we'll get one).
If there are no such announcements, then we'll wait some days to see whether a continual presence is maintained - I don't know exactly how long we should wait - before resolving.
If the troops withdraw without being replenished by comparable numbers, then the market will stay open.
I think the start time might be pretty close to 9pm local time, I saw this tweet earlier timestamped at 9:19pm local time saying they could hear APCs in the distance: https://x.com/TreyYingst/status/1717969326047637888?s=20
Might be tricky to resolve to the right bucket
@georgeyw Thanks. Assuming the troops don't withdraw, such that this counts as an "invasion", then the backup plan as stated is that I wait a week and then resolve 50% to both adjacent buckets, if neither can be reasonably ruled out by then.
@Shump I'm only seeing reports of increased activity starting from a few hours ago, but it's already 2am in Israel, which would put the increased activity in the 9pm-12pm bucket. Are you seeing anything earlier than that?
@georgeyw No but there's obviously a lag on reporting. We'll probably get more information on when soldiers entered later