With current funding set to expire on Saturday 30th September, Manifold users currently think there's something like a 75% chance of a US government shutdown:
/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd
How long willl the shutdown last?
There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:
35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)
21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)
16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)
How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?
Resolution criterea:
As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st October and ends on 7th October will be counted as lasting for 7 day.
This includes any shutdown which starts in 2023. It is possible that a short term funding resultion is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year.
This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2023. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.
If a shutdown begins in 2023 and rolls into 2024, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2024.
Related questions
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On October 1, 2023, Congress passed a stopgap spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. The bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), funds federal agencies at last year's levels for 45 days through November 17, 2023.
On November 14, 2023, the House approved a bill to avert a government shutdown. The bill would extend funding until January 19 for priorities including military construction, veterans' affairs, transportation, and housing. The Senate is expected to pass the measure. Please refer to:
@Orca Senate and president have to pass it/sign off. Even then, will it resolve or wait to close date in case some other situation arises despite this bill providing funding to January?
@ChristopherRandles Agreed that the president needs to sign it, but I do think that once he does this becomes legally certain to resolve "no shutdown".
So it's up to OP of course, but as someone with a lot of mana locked up here I'd certainly like it if markets like this resolved yes once the outcome was certain.
@ChristopherRandles Agreed. I think once Biden signs it, we should probably get enough certainty to consider this resolved. Wonder what the OP is leaning towards
@Orca My instinct is to leave the market open until the end of December since we won't know until then that there hasn't been a shutdown in 2023.
This is a much larger market (over 2,000 traders) asking whether there will be a shutdown at all, so I will probably follow the lead of this market rather than doing something different myself:
Trying to convert this market's probabilities to a numeric (expected) value for how long the government will be shutdown for, yields ~ two weeks of shutdown. Actually a numeric version would also be useful in tandem but this type of question is useful also.
Using this markets probabilities and the average of the range for the each bin (taking 42 days+ bin as 45)
Expected shutdown length: 13.7 days