With current funding set to expire on Saturday 30th September, Manifold users currently think there's something like a 75% chance of a US government shutdown:

/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd

How long willl the shutdown last?

There were shutdowns which have lasted for a single day in the 1980s, but recent years have seen some longer shutdowns. The longest have been:

• 35 days - 2018-2019 (President Trump, Republican House)

• 21 days - 1995-1996 (President Clinton, Republican House)

• 16 days - 2013 (President Obama, Republican House)

How long will any shutdown which starts this year last?

Resolution criterea:

• As with the example shutdowns mentioned above, this will count the first and last day of any government shutdown. So a shutdown which starts on 1st October and ends on 7th October will be counted as lasting for 7 day.

• This includes any shutdown which starts in 2023. It is possible that a short term funding resultion is passed in time to avoid a shutdown this week but there is a US government shutdown once it lapses later this year.

• This market only relates to the first US government shutdown of 2023. If there are multiple shutdowns, this will be resolved based on how quickly the first one ends.

• If a shutdown begins in 2023 and rolls into 2024, this market will count the total length of that shutdown including the days in 2024.