Will SpaceX's launch license for a second Starship–Superheavy flight be granted by the FAA in October?

Question

Resolves YES on the FAA issuing a launch license, before the end of October, that would authorise SpaceX's planned second integrated flight test of the Starship–Superheavy vehicle, launching from Boca Chica, Texas on a near-orbital flight.

The existing license that authorised the first flight test can be found on the FAA's licenses page:

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/

as license  "VOL 23-129".

It is expected that the FAA will modify the existing license in order to extend its applicability to the second flight. The existing license authorises the first flight only using the following language:

4. Authorization: In accordance with the representations in the Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. application as of the date of this license, and any amendments to the license application or waivers approved by the FAA, in writing, Space Exploration Technologies, Corp. is authorized to conduct launch consisting of:

a. Pre-flight ground operations:
    i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.
    ii. At SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.
b. Flight Operations:
    i. Using the Starship-Super Heavy vehicle.
    ii. From SpaceX Boca Chica Launch Complex, Boca Chica, Texas.
    iii. To Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean locations specified in its application.
    iv. For the first flight only, unless this license is modified to remove this term.

It is expected that the final term iv restricting authorisation to the first flight only will be removed. However, any license authorising a second Starship–Superheavy flight launching from Boca Chica to the Gulf of Mexico and Pacific Ocean will cause this market to resolve YES.

This market will resolve YES on such a modified license appearing on the FAA's licenses page, or on a new license document appearing there that would authorise the second flight, or on reliable media reports that the FAA has granted such a license, even if they have yet to update their webpage (this happened previously). Such evidence must appear before the end of October, even if we later discover the license was issued in some sense on October 31st, if this is not public information conveyed by reliable sources by the end of October, this market will resolve NO.

Arbitrary restrictions contained within such a license still count for the purposes of this market - such as if a license is granted but does not authorise a flight until next year.

It does not matter whether there are other regulatory requirements SpaceX also need in order to launch, in addition to a launch license from the FAA. This market resolves only on an FAA license, or NO at the end of October if none is issued.

The relevant timezone for "End of October" is local time in Texas.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Nov 1, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.