never go full liz truss

I'm wondering what a liz truss event notification would look like in a paradox interactive game

Think this would be a pretty funny conditional market if anyone is interested.

It's giving Biden-out markets

@bens starmover?

'An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.'

does this refer to the announcement occurring before end date, or the announcement asserting that he will actually be out of office before end date?

@EndTERFdom I think it has to be the first one, or this would be trading at like 20%, like the inverse of the 30 June option here: /Noit/on-what-dates-will-keir-starmer-sti

What just happened?

@bens

@Jack1 og article: https://www.dailymail.com/news/article-15824081/DAN-HODGES-sources-tell-Keir-decided-stand-hell-terms.html

Not seeing anyone else reporting this so this basically trades on Dan Hodge's credibility now

UK circa 2026

@0xseraphim because we have starmer in the first place or because we want to ditch him?

@TheAllMemeingEye

@TheAllMemeingEye UK elections feel very fake now

By election probably on 18 June. I could see Keir announcing a timeline to step aside if burnham wins. Also if he lost maybe burnham supporters would think he’s still got to go and challenge him.

Neat. All my trades have averaged out to zero. 😅

@Fion insane 30k mana freeroll, nice

edit: nvm I thought you had 0 cost basis from a ton of trades, not zero profit. Gg not as impressed anymore 😆

@Gen haha, yes, that would indeed be impressive. But no, I was just amused at the numbers briefly lining up neatly after a very swingy few days 😅

For this to resolve before July, you basically need a full leadership contest on fast-forward plus the “Starmer suddenly discovers the dignity of resignation” bonus. That combo feels more like 5% than market odds implies.

@Mochi Note that this market resolves based on an announcement of resignation/leaving. So if tomorrow Starmer says “I’m going to resign in September”, I believe that would be a yes

@archvenison so basically “procedural delay” factor comes down to whether you think he will contest a leadership challenge

@archvenison I'd bet that, specifically, up to at least 90%

@Tomoffer

@Mochi 🫡

@archvenison It's semantics, isn't it an announcement that they will announce, rather than an announcement of a resignation as such?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Yeah if he were to really say “I’m leaving in the fall” I’m not sure how Polymarket would resolve. But if it’s “I’m resigning, but sticking around while the leadership election happens” I’m pretty confident that’s an immediate yes