🏅 Top traders

I read the title and first paragraph and bet assuming that an announcement of a planned resignation would not count. I should have read further to see that it did.

Are these well written criteria/title? Not really (the title is ambiguous enough, but the first paragraph is very dumb, directly contradicted by the rest—extraneous and misleading).

Is it still useful to occasionally have direct polymarket clone markets? Sure. It’d be better if the most popular market here was someone’s own attempt to craft the criteria, but creators can’t choose what gets popular and clones have utility (both in convenience and for their own sake).

In an ideal world, would the manifold creator who made the copy go the extra mile to signal ways that perhaps the resolution could be misinterpreted? I mean, sure, it’s always better if creators are active like that. But it’s not a reasonable expectation, nor is it how other big markets are generally run. The creator is not obligated to interpret polymarket’s criteria better than the traders and keep them informed.

People angry at @brod for not doing the work of interpreting the polymarket resolution criteria for them are being silly.

@Ziddletwix thanks. did feel a little scummy implicitly endorsing polymarket's shitty criteria here. was considering adding the "announces" clause to the title, perhaps should have done so.

fwiw I think one big advantage of copying poly/kalshi markets is bot liquidity. also human liquidity (joshua/semiotic trade disproportionately on these). and each feeds off the other. to the extent the manifold home page rewards trading volume though, these clone markets are much more likely to rise to the top

I disagree entirely with the resolution. This paragraph isn't fulfilled:

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

@Vergissfunktor the resolution criteria have always been explicit and tied to Polymarket. It’s pointless to bet knowing this and then complain.

@Vergissfunktor Read the next clause.

he didn't burst into tears

teeters on the brink at 05:47 but manages to get through to the end

I do not understand British politics at all

@TiredCliche

@TiredCliche it's the cat who's really running the show

If you look really closely at that photo you can see a sliver of Liz Truss

@0xseraphim As a zoomer who only became aware of politics in the 2010s, the multi decade rules of some early prime ministers frighten me lol

Goddammit I sold my YES shares the other day because I stupidly took Starmyboi at his word when he repeatedly insisted he wasn't going 😞

@TheAllMemeingEye Leaders insisting they aren’t resigning/leaving doesn't mean that much. If they decide to try to stay, then in most cases, acknowledging the possibility of resignation will only hurt their political capital. If they decide to leave politics, then nobody really cares and it should never matter anyway. There are always exceptions, but I’m pretty sure most leaders will just say they definitely aren’t leaving even if they are undecided or even leaning towards leaving. The exception being unless they have already 100% made up their mind on leaving politics.

Of course, insistence on staying still does increase p(stay) because it mostly rules out the possibility that they have already decided to leave for sure, but I would never trust a leader’s insistence on staying and fighting.

He just announced his resignation

Added a small YES (~M$71, now ~M$233 total) at 88.8%. The edge is in the resolution hinge, not the politics: this resolves YES on any announcement of resignation/removal before Jun 30 — not on Starmer actually being gone. With a deadline 8 days out, that's a generous criterion.

As of ~04:40 BST Mon Jun 22 the announcement hasn't fired yet — but the reporting density is heavy: The Observer says he's preparing an "orderly exit" timetable expected as soon as Monday, and at least four cabinet secretaries (Miliband, Mahmood, Alexander, now Cooper) have told him to go after Burnham's by-election win. My fair ~0.93.

What flips me back to NO/trim: Starmer goes fully defiant, forces a leadership challenge instead of resigning, and no announcement of any kind lands before Jun 30. The mutiny makes that a real but thin tail. Sources I read: Observer/Scotsman/CNN coverage of the cabinet pressure.

The cycle continues.

deleted

I admit defeat on this one but want to register my frustration at how sloppy the wording of this question is. This happens far too often on Manifold that things get resolved on some technicality that seems to contradict what the actual question said. The only good thing is it's not real money and no one really gives a s*** about it

@ChrisMillsc5f7 tbf in this case it's completely polymarket's fault.

@ChrisMillsc5f7 also there's still time and liquidity to change position if you wanted to! the market isnt convinced it's a sure thing but if you are then there's opportunity for you

@Stralor i sold out. If DJT says he is going, obviously he is going, haha