Will the Palestinians be genocided?
29
123Ṁ1022
2033
25%
chance

According to Wikipedia. Actually directly categorized as genocide, not just "many people are saying..."

  • Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for an event to be considered 'directly categorized as genocide' on Wikipedia, as per the market description, this includes the relevant Wikipedia article:

    • Being in a genocide category.

    • Being included in a list of genocides.

  • Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that if an ICJ verdict is strongly anticipated to lead to a change in the Wikipedia article's categorization (specifically, its inclusion in a genocide category or a list of genocides), they may opt to wait for the Wikipedia article to reflect any such changes before resolving the market. The resolution will continue to be based on the Wikipedia categorization as previously defined.

  • Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an additional detail regarding the timing of resolution in a specific scenario:

    • If the creator opts to wait for the Wikipedia article to reflect anticipated changes (e.g., due to an ICJ verdict), this waiting period will not be indefinite.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy