Will the bombing of Palestinians be recognised as genocide by at least one country signed into the Geneva Convention?
Basic
25
Ṁ4483
resolved Dec 30
Resolved
YES

If the Genocide Convention is activated resolves YES

If nothing happens, NO

Palestinian territories considered are mainly Gaza strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem.

Forces committing genocide is IDF and its allies.

Info on what is considered to be genocide:

📄 https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/documents/atrocity-crimes/Doc.1_Convention%20on%20the%20Prevention%20and%20Punishment%20of%20the%20Crime%20of%20Genocide.pdf

🌐 https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/11/gaza-un-experts-call-international-community-prevent-genocide-against

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predicted YES
predicted YES

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Wait, for this to resolve as yes all that needs to happen is for e.g. Iran to accuse Israel of genocide?

@nathanwei list of countries signed into is here https://treaties.un.org/pages/showdetails.aspx?objid=0800000280158b1a - so yes, if only Iran makes an official claim it's enough to solve YES.
By the way it's very likely that if a country signs into, there will soon or immediately be more than one. The market choose to focus on the first who sign as a turning point in the process of recognising a genocide.

What do you mean by "activating" the convention? Neither of your sources define it.

Going by what little public usage of the term there is (see below), 'activation' seems to be used to refer to any nation submitting the claim that genocide is occurring, at which point it is up to other parties to dispute that claim. That seems very different from your title, where an unspecified 'being recognized' implies some sort of vague politically credible recognition.

Craig Murray and Hassan Bin Imran are just about the only people I can find that use the language, both referring to a contracting party submitting the claim of genocide.

predicted NO

@dph121 Yes, I mean that a claim is submitted and recognised by at least one nation that is included in the Genocide Convention. I'm not an expert lawyer in international laws so can't expect precise details, but I believe we will all know the moment the genocide will be recognised from the news (as for instance the Bosnian genocide) I also found Craig Murray referring to this in this article: https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/12/murder/

@Quadrifold

Just a suggestion but maybe change the title or add to the description that one country (signed into the Geneva Convention) officially recognizes it as a Genocide.

Good to make the change early before it gets bought down too far

@GCS Suggestion accepted, I think it makes more sense now. Thank you.