At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide. Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count. But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments. For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes. If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes. However if the United Nations considers this not a genocide (if UN doesn’t change by then) it will resolve no. If the UN doesn’t get involved this will resolve with more of a discussion.
For those who don’t know here is the UN’s definition of genocide https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml
I will not bet in this market in case of controversy.
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The UN can mean many things. I would specify the International Court of Justice (ICJ), this way it's resolved by a judicial process, as opposed to political vote.
What do you think about the 10 year gap; enough time to escape the quagmire of the present to view it objectively?
@GazDownright I don’t want to use only the ICJ as a way to resolve this mostly because did want a consensus and the ICJ could be off from that. Especially if the ICJ doesn’t get involved again. But the ICJ will definitely be one of the factors helping resolve this. For your second question I think that ten years out is enough time to distance from October 7th but maybe not enough time to distance from the conflict as a whole.
@JamesF historians and a UN vote including countries trying not to implicate themselves are two different kettle of fish. I find it tricky to bet on this market if, say, a UN security council decission vetoed by Israel's allies could lead to a resolution here.
@GazDownright If such a vote seems to be affected by only Israel or their closest allies but almost everyone else considers it a genocide I would consider resolving yes instead of no much like how Turkey doesn’t believe they genocided the Armenians but if it is more 50-50 or most don’t consider it a genocide it will probably resolve no
@JamesF Okay, that seems predictable enough of a guideline for me personally, thank you for clarifying.