Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, an authoritative international judicial body, such as the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or the International Criminal Court (ICC), issues a final ruling that Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. The resolution will be based on official statements or publications from these institutions.
Background
Allegations of genocide against Israel have been raised by various entities. In December 2023, South Africa filed a case at the ICJ accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. In January 2024, the ICJ ordered Israel to take measures to prevent acts of genocide but did not make a final determination on the genocide accusation. (theguardian.com) Additionally, in December 2024, Amnesty International released a report accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza, which Israel rejected as unfounded. (pbs.org)
Considerations
Legal Process Duration: International legal proceedings, especially those concerning genocide, are complex and can take several years to reach a final verdict.
Definition of Genocide: The legal definition of genocide requires specific intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group. Establishing this intent is a high legal threshold.
Political Implications: Accusations of genocide carry significant political and diplomatic consequences, which may influence the proceedings and their outcomes.
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@creator i changed the title of this market to match the description, feel free to make a new market if this isn’t quite what you had in mind!
So if there is no ruling by EOY 2025, it resolves NO? Israel is due to RESPOND to the ICJ case in January 2026. The ICC hasn't alleged any genocide or whatever, and cannot issue a final ruling because no one is going to turn over Israelis and the ICC avoids trials in absentia. The way this market is phrased, the probability is basically 0%.