Will Israel be found Guilty of Genocide at the ICJ ?
87
1.1kṀ9720
2027
20%
chance

US Politics
Wars
Culture
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Gaza
Justice
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
92% chance
Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?
36% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?
25% chance
Will the Palestinians be genocided?
25% chance
Will the ICJ find Myanmar in breach of the Genocide Convention?
45% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Myanmar committed genocide?
38% chance
Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
23% chance
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
9% chance
will Binyamin Netanyahu be convicted in his current trial?
43% chance
Sort by:

Could this deadline be extended?

@ChadCotty done.

Can you clarify whether this question refers to the preliminary order that would enjoin Israel to halt military action on the grounds there is a prima facie case for genocide OR an ultimate ruling (which may be many years away) about whether Israel is guilty of genocide? If the latter, I presume if there is no verdict, then this question resolves no?

@EdBarth I ask because the title seems to imply the latter, but your end date seems to imply the former

@EdBarth bump @AitchKay

This seems like a Tweet made by someone who knows they're going to lose.

Feb 12 is a bit too soon as a deadline...

@Quadrifold True - what date would be best?

People are also trading

Will the ICJ punish/charge Israel of commiting genocide or attempting to commit genocide by the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Israel committed war crimes in Gaza?
92% chance
Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?
36% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?
25% chance
Will the Palestinians be genocided?
25% chance
Will the ICJ find Myanmar in breach of the Genocide Convention?
45% chance
Will the ICJ determine that Myanmar committed genocide?
38% chance
Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)
23% chance
Will Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
9% chance
will Binyamin Netanyahu be convicted in his current trial?
43% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy