If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).

200Ṁ5262

resolved May 10

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Jan 15, 10:28pm: Semi-random market, like a coin flip but a bit more fun. Trump picks. Resolves as MKT if he does not run.

Politics

Trump

2024 US Presidential Election

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Why is this still open, please resolve. Given the account has been inactive, any trustworthy ish user can resolve

predictedNO

@firstuserhere No can do - the market has to close before us trustworthyish folk can resolve. I’ve already tried to get the admins’ attention. @DavidChee? @ian?

@NcyRocks ohhh okay, didn't know the close rule

predictedNO

@firstuserhere It’s a bit counterintuitive.

@firstuserhere wait I'm active again

Trump announced his campaign in November 2022; resolving NO.

Never mind, this market is still open. @DavidChee, this should resolve NO.

How should this resolve?

predictedNO

30 days hath September, April, June and November. So it should be 182/366 which is 49.7% rather than 50% exactly

@samanddeanus There are all sorts of second-order effects, like his probability of acknowledging is not uniform over time. I think it's close enough to 50%.