Based on the current declarations by China :
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-stages-combat-patrols-crosses-strait-median-line-taiwan-says-2023-03-31/
Will they actually conduct another series of military drills with the goal of intimidate Taiwan, similarly to what happened last August, after speaker Nancy Pelosi visit to Taipei?
1,000
3.00@alby fwiw, in my market I won't be treating this as 'similar' to last August, and have betted no on my view that this is a replacement of those drills rather than a precursor
@JoshuaWilkes Yes, it's just a recent news about the topic, not saying this is considered to be 'military drills'
@alby got you. I do think this is awkwardly close to military drills. It's hard to build a rigorous resolution criteria here
A slightly different market
https://manifold.markets/JoshuaWilkes/if-tsai-ingwen-meets-with-kevin-mcc