Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2028?
17
Ṁ596
2029
34%
chance

Taiwan possesses four island groups off the coast of mainland China: Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Wuqiu, and Penghu.

China might opt to seize one or more of these islands in the coming years, either to test American and Taiwanese resolve, as a bargaining chip, as salami tactics, or as part of an invasion or naval blockade.

Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands before the end of 2028?

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Really cool how well-crafted, thorough, and informative the description here is, especially with the links. Good stuff!

predicts NO

@NADZOR small note on this: no-one in Taiwan has ever said 'the Penghu', it's almost always just Penghu, although The Penghu Islands is technically correct. I suspect this error comes from a rather contorted paragraph on Wikipedia.

predicts NO

@cash for your eyes obviously

@NADZOR Thanks!

@JoshuaWilkes Thanks! Updated the descriptions of the questions to just Penghu.

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