IF Tsai Ing-wen meets with Kevin McCarthy in the US this month, will China conduct military drills around Taiwan?
5
31
110
resolved Apr 9
Resolved
YES

Military Drills here meaning something comparable to last summer, rather than the ongoing flights into the edges of Taiwan's ADIZ

Resolves NA if there is no meeting

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Resolving yes. I don't think there's any reasonable doubt about the nature and spirit of what's happening, even if we never get maps showing activity on the east coast

https://twitter.com/MoNDefense/status/1645036768344031232?s=20

predicted YES

@JoshuaWilkes May there be peace for our time.

Just as fyi for people who are waiting for me to resolve this. I am holding off until more reports come in, specifically with maps showing where drills took place.

Something which is different from last August is that China didn't release those maps before the drills started.

To be clear, I absolutely anticipate that I will be resolving this market to YES. I just can't quite shake a sense currently we lack a truly detailed picture of what's going on

bought Ṁ529 of YES

@JoshuaWilkes https://twitter.com/mondefense?s=21

Taiwan Ministry of Defense has been updating on the situation. Should be the primary source for this.

@footgun agreed. In fact, it's their updates that are thing that has me holding off. You'll notice the maps clearly show incursions on the strait side but not to the east.

@JoshuaWilkes again, don't want to alarm you! Just want to ge clear about why I haven't already hit YES

It's become obvious that I've been too slack with resolution criteria here. For clarification, 'comparable to last summer' means multiple drills in multiple zones surrounding Taiwan.

@JoshuaWilkes I'm just waiting for some sort of confirmation that the drills are indeed happening to the east of Taiwan as well as in the Strait

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