Will China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
54
Ṁ1kṀ13kDec 31
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the People’s Republic of China launch an official military operation against Taiwan before December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
28% chance
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
10% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?
4% chance
[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
5% chance
Will China militarily seize any of Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, Penghu) before the end of 2026?
5% chance
Will China also kidnap the president of Taiwan in 2026?
2% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?
13% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?
21% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?
25% chance