Will Interactive Brokers announce a prediction market platform before the end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

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@ahalekelly Can you please resolve? Thank you!

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Thanks for the reminder.

Looks like there’s still no official news, but the ForecastEx rulebook was last updated October 25, 2023, I suspect they're waiting for CFTC approval. The LLC Agreement from 2021 lists the board as being 4 members, Chairman and CEO Thomas Peterffy (Founder and Chairman of IBKR), Earl H. Nemser (Legal Counsel and Vice Chairman of IBKR), Paul J. [Redacted] (likely Paul J. Brody, CFO of IBKR), and [Redacted].

predicted YES

@traders new market for this year

bought Ṁ1,500 of YES

@jack So the story behind this market is that in August I was looking through the PredictIt CFTC filings and saw the CFTC had a pending application from a company called ForecastEx (https://4castex.com), they only had one employee on LinkedIn, who previously worked at Interactive Brokers, and their street address matched the IB office. I meant to write a post on this and forgot.

So it looks like Event Trader launched in September and is just over/under binary markets on the prices of commodity futures and stocks. I didn't define the term prediction market but I feel like these are just financial derivatives and shouldn't count. Maybe they will add other markets in the future? I have closed trading on this market, I feel like the best course of action is to resolve it N/A and create a new market that is better defined?

@SG you also have significant stake in this market

Oh, from the ForecastEx rulebook:

Event Questions can be based on economic, business, environmental, legislative, or social events, or any other event that ForecastEx chooses

ForecastEx will not list Event Markets deemed prohibited by the CFTC pursuant to Section 5c(5)(C) of the CEA.

As enacted by Congress in the Dodd-Frank Act, CEA Section 5c(C)(5)(C) (the CEA gaming provision) prohibits the listing of agreements, contracts, transactions or swaps in an excluded commodity that involve (i) activity that is unlawful under any federal or state law, (i) terrorism, (il) assassination, (iv) war, or (vi) gaming, if the Commission determines such agreements, contracts, or transactions are

"contrary to the public interest."

Also, the ForecastEx application says it's still pending?

predicted YES

@ahalekelly Yes, that is my understanding of it as well - the current EventTrader platform is event contracts (yes/no binary markets) on financial products/indices - e.g. S&P 500, gold index, natural gas price index.

N/A seems reasonable to me.

predicted YES

Or if everyone else agrees that this doesn't count, since nobody traded since me, we could probably just reverse that trade and then carry on with that clarification.

Ok I've reopened the market. This will resolve Yes if IBKR announces event contracts on any outcome that isn't the price of a financial instrument.

It looks like the currently available contracts on IBKR are actually CME Event Contracts, as the ForecastEx application is still pending. From the ForecastEx application it seems like they're a Kalshi competitor spun out of IBKR, but their contracts will be able to be traded through multiple traditional futures brokerages similar to the CME contracts.