Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point during the calendar year 2027 (from January 1, 2027, through December 31, 2027), Robinhood actively offers event contracts or prediction markets on its official platform (including its mobile app or desktop interface).

This market resolves to NO if Robinhood completely discontinues, shuts down, or formally pauses its prediction market/event contract offerings for the entirety of 2027.

Clarifications and Edge Cases:

• Availability: The feature does not need to be available to all users or in all 50 states. If Robinhood restricts prediction markets to specific states, regions, or tier groups (such as Robinhood Gold subscribers), this still counts as "offering" prediction markets.

• Temporary Outages: Brief suspensions, technical downtime, or short-lived regulatory freezes (lasting less than 30 consecutive days) do not trigger a NO resolution, provided the feature is restored within 2027.

• Verification: Resolution will be verified using the official Robinhood Prediction Markets page, the Robinhood Help Center, or official press releases and reporting from reputable financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters).

Background

Robinhood initially entered the prediction market space in March 2025 by launching its Prediction Markets Hub, subsequently expanding the service to include college and pro football contracts in August 2025. Operating through CFTC-regulated event contracts via Robinhood Derivatives, LLC (RHD), the feature allows retail traders to trade "Yes" or "No" positions on outcomes spanning sports, politics, economics, and entertainment. This market focuses on whether Robinhood will sustain this product line into 2027.

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