Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if a new prediction market company or independent trading platform launches to the public between October 7, 2026, and December 31, 2029, inclusive. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

To qualify as a "new prediction market company or platform," the launch must meet all of the following criteria:

1. New Entity/Platform: It must be a newly incorporated company, an independent startup, or a brand-new decentralized protocol launched after October 7, 2026.

   • Exclusions: A new feature, tab, or service introduced by an already existing company (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, or Interactive Brokers adding event contracts) does not qualify, unless it is spun out into a distinct, newly incorporated corporate entity. White-label apps or integrations powered by existing backends (such as Kalshi-powered tribal apps) do not qualify.

2. Real-Value Trading: The platform must allow the public to trade or wager real fiat currency or cryptocurrency on future event contracts. Play-money-only platforms do not qualify.

3. Media Verification: The launch must be documented by at least two reputable finance, tech, or crypto news publications (such as Bloomberg, TechCrunch, CoinDesk, Reuters, or Axios) explicitly identifying the entity as a new prediction market platform or company.

Background

Prediction markets have experienced rapid growth and regulatory shifts. Following Kalshi's landmark legal victory against the CFTC, which cleared the way for regulated event contracts in the U.S., trading volumes across major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket surged. The expansion of the industry has also led to new variations, such as Verifact Markets launching in October 2026 to let users trade on "disputed facts". As the market continues to mature and attract mainstream interest, new startups and protocols are expected to enter the space.