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MANIFOLD
When, if ever, will Russia control Konstantinovka?
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.8k
resolved May 31
Resolved
August 14, 2026
Resolved
NO
By the end of January 2026
Resolved
NO
By the end of March 2026
Resolved
NO
By the end of May 2026

Resolution criteria

An option will resolve YES if, at any time before the stated deadline, the Russian Federation (including its armed forces) is known to control the entirety of central Konstantinovka in Donetsk Oblast, shaded yellow in the image below:

For the duration of the war, any YES resolution must be supported by five or more of the following sources:

Each option will otherwise resolve NO once the deadline passes.

Clarifications

The precise deadline for each option is 21:00:00 UTC on the final day of the stated month.

For the purpose of this market, the following ISW classifications count as Russian control:

  • Assessed Russian Control

  • Assessed Russian Advance

  • Assessed Russian Gain

Konstantinovka is also known as Kostiantynivka.

I will not trade in this market.

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It looks unlikely to happen by the end of the month, so here are two new markets: