When, if ever, will Russia control Konstantinovka?
3
1kṀ498May 31
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
By the end of January 2026
57%
By the end of March 2026
67%
By the end of May 2026
Resolution criteria
An option will resolve YES if, at any time before the stated deadline, the Russian Federation (including its armed forces) is known to control the entirety of central Konstantinovka in Donetsk Oblast, shaded yellow in the image below:

For the duration of the war, any YES resolution must be supported by five or more of the following sources:
Each option will otherwise resolve NO once the deadline passes.
Clarifications
The precise deadline for each option is 21:00:00 UTC on the final day of the stated month.
For the purpose of this market, the following ISW classifications count as Russian control:
Assessed Russian Control
Assessed Russian Advance
Assessed Russian Gain
Konstantinovka is also known as Kostiantynivka.
I will not trade in this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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