Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region. If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."

For the purposes of this market:

• The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.

• Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts. No active Ukrainian military presence, pocket, enclave, or held settlement may remain within these borders.

• Primary Sources: Resolution will be determined using daily maps and campaign assessments from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) (https://www.understandingwar.org) and the Ukrainian open-source intelligence project DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live). If these sources disagree, consensus from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) will be utilized.

• Diplomatic Resolution: If a formal peace treaty, armistice, or ceasefire is implemented that officially cedes the entirety of both oblasts to Russia, this market will resolve to the year the agreement goes into effect and Ukrainian forces finish withdrawing from the region.

• Partial Control: If the conflict freezes or a treaty is signed where Ukraine retains control over any portion of either Donetsk or Luhansk Oblast (no matter how small, even a single village), the market resolves to "Never."

Background

The Donbas region of eastern Ukraine remains the primary focal point of the Russian military's offensive operations.

As of mid-2026, Russia controls nearly 100% of Luhansk Oblast, with only negligible fragments of territory occasionally contested. However, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian forces continue to hold approximately 19–20% of the territory, which contains several heavily fortified urban areas and key logistics hubs. Because frontline movements have progressed slowly, the timeline for Russia to successfully capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast remains highly uncertain.

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