Resolution criterion
This market will resolve to the person who is the President of Venezuela at the close date.
Close date
This market will close at 04:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2027.
Clarifications
If the presidency is abolished, this market will resolve to Venezuela's head of state at the close date.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to whoever is actually in power and carrying out presidential duties at the close date.
An acting president counts if they are genuinely exercising presidential power
The market will not resolve to someone who merely claims the title without actual control (e.g., Juan Guaidó in previous years)
The market will not resolve to Maduro if he is detained in the US at end of year 2026
1,000People are also trading
@JussiVilleHeiskanen I'll try to answer all of your questions in one go...
The market resolves to whichever person is president at the close date. If there is no president or head of state whatsoever (which would presumably mean anarchy) I would have to strongly consider voiding the market, although I would like to avoid doing that if I can.
I don't believe there is anything in the resolution criteria to suggest that I should resolve to the most recent president at the close date if that person is no longer in office.
The "Other" option should be read as "any other person not listed here" rather than a catch-all for any other possible scenario. (Otherwise, it would include outcomes that are arguably orthogonal to the question.)
It's hard to say what I will do if there's some kind of civil war or fragmentation of power, because that includes a wide variety of different scenarios. If there is an ongoing conflict between government and rebel forces at the close date, and each side has its own claimed head of state, I would be inclined to resolve 100% to the one recognised by the government unless I have a good reason not to. (But see my earlier clarification about resolving to the person who is actually in power.) I would like to avoid a percentage resolution to this market, but if someone makes the case for one, I will listen
@JussiVilleHeiskanen sorry, it resolves to last president. I really should read the descriptions... bad me
Interesting that this has deviated significantly from the corresponding Kalshi market
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvenezuelaleader/who-will-be-the-head-of-state-of-venezuela-on-date/kxvenezuelaleader-26dec31
That one still assigns Delcy only 20-21%.
@BorisBartlog idk what Kalshi is smoking tbh. If this were a Metaculus question I’d have Machado and Gonzalez at like 10% each
@bens Well, the odds for Delcy are within 1% of each other now (24-25), so it was a temporary gap
I agree that the Machado-or-Gonzalez outcome seems less likely by the hour ... have been long Delcy myself since yesterday
@CraigDemel she seems to have sold Maduro, and she may be saving face internally with her chavista statements; don’t know how long can this keep going but opposition seems totally inept to seek or obtain power.
@CraigDemel There doesn't seem to be any organized effort to overthrow the ruling clique. The US was careful to outline this as a 'criminal' matter, which while frankly a bit bizarre suggests that there is no immediate interest in, say, launching an invasion. Nor has there been any word from Trump or others that they want to insist on immediate elections, or force them to accept the return of various exiled competitors. Rubio apparently even spoke with Delcy Rodriguez on the phone, and while it wasn't an amicable conversation it seems he accepts her authority, at least temporarily.
All of which suggests a combination of open theatrics and secret deals.
@BorisBartlog @LietKynes The opposition won the last election by a ridiculous margin before it was annulled, so I don't think they're inept or disorganized. Willing to overthrow, maybe not. But I don't think Rodriguez would survive any election.
@CraigDemel Yes. The main question at this point is not so much 'Has Rodriguez taken over as President' (we're at 95+% yes for that), but 'Will she feel compelled to step down or hold elections within a few months, as constitutionally required'.
The Supreme Court (which swore her in as President) has evidently given her some cover by declaring Maduro merely temporarily absent.
Anyway my expectation is that she can drag her feet in various ways if she cares to, and delay elections and transfer of power until at least next year if not indefinitely.
Exclusive: Venezuelan leaders offered U.S. a path to stay in power without Maduro
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article312516272.html
@moobunny I will resolve to whoever is actually in power and carrying out presidential duties. So this wouldn't have resolved to Juan Guaidó in any previous year, for instance. But it also won't resolve to Maduro if he's still detained in the US at EOY.