Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
31
1kṀ916
Dec 31
60%
chance

I'm open to arguments about whether or not it should be disclosed beforehand.

Market context
AI
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

https://x.com/METR_Evals/status/1860061711849652378

Bunch of same markets for different timeframes:

People are also trading

Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
2% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
65% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2030?
83% chance
Will a paper fully created by AI be accepted into Nature by 2030?
62% chance
Which 2024 AI paper will have the most citations in 2030?
In 2030, which AI paper will have the most citations?
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
26% chance
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
89% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
79% chance
will research with at least 50% AI generated content win the Nobel Prize by 2030?
22% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy