Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
70
1kṀ59952027
27%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
71% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
33% chance
Will Terence Tao publish a Math paper such that some result was solved by AI before 2028?
33% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance
Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
14% chance
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
2% chance
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
63% chance
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
45% chance
Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?
37
Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?
40