Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?
21
1kṀ685Dec 31
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Expansion of the title as follows. Not exhaustive.
The paper or report must be submitted on arxiv
Must have one or more turning award winners (counting as on the date of this question creation)
The report can suggest or imply or straight up claim that an AI system is conscious. If it's "likely conscious" on the scale, then we will resolve this to yes.
I'll not bet on this market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2026?
21% chance
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end?
15% chance
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
33% chance
Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?
7% chance
will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
74% chance
Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
14% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
35% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2028?
65% chance
Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
79% chance
Will we have an AI generated research paper accepted to > 1 top ML conference by 2027?
60% chance