Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2024 end?

#AI #Technology #Science #AI Impacts #AI Safety #AI Alignment #AI risk

Ṁ662

Ṁ410

Dec 31

10%

chance

ALL

Expansion of the title as follows. Not exhaustive.

The paper or report must be submitted on arxiv
Must have one or more turning award winners (counting as on the date of this question creation)
The report can suggest or imply or straight up claim that an AI system is conscious. If it's "likely conscious" on the scale, then we will resolve this to yes.

I'll not bet on this market

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Btw, this market was inspired from this paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.08708 which has Yoshua Bengio as an author and the abstract says that the current systems according to their analysis are not conscious

Our analysis suggests that no current AI systems are conscious, but also suggests that there are no obvious technical barriers to building AI systems which satisfy these indicators

Consciousness in Artificial Intelligence: Insights from the Science of Consciousness

Whether current or near-term AI systems could be conscious is a topic of scientific interest and increasing public concern. This report argues for, and exemplifies, a rigorous and empirically grounded approach to AI consciousness: assessing existing AI systems in detail, in light of our best-supported neuroscientific theories of consciousness. We survey several prominent scientific theories of consciousness, including recurrent processing theory, global workspace theory, higher-order theories, predictive processing, and attention schema theory. From these theories we derive "indicator properties" of consciousness, elucidated in computational terms that allow us to assess AI systems for these properties. We use these indicator properties to assess several recent AI systems, and we discuss how future systems might implement them. Our analysis suggests that no current AI systems are conscious, but also suggests that there are no obvious technical barriers to building AI systems which satisfy these indicators.

>If the conclusion is "maybe conscious" then we will conduct a poll.

Would this poll be about whether the system is conscious, or whether the Turing award winner subjectively thinks the system is conscious?

@Nick332 Thinking about this, I'm removing this from the criteria. Needless ambiguity. In case of authors stating "maybe conscious" or "might be conscious", we do not count it. Needs to definitely point in a direction.