Will a Turing Award be given out for work on AI alignment or existential safety by 2040?
28
1kṀ5032040
79%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves yes if, in my judgement, that’s the reason for the award, even if those exact terms don’t appear in the official announcement.
If I’m not around, someone else can resolve it in that spirit.
Past winners and rationales: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_Award
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
8% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?
10% chance
Will Anthropic be the best on AI safety among major AI labs at the end of 2025?
87% chance
Will a paper or report, with >=1 turing award winner as an author, suggest that an AI system is conscious, by 2025 end?
13% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2050, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
51% chance
Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?
34% chance
Will there be serious AI safety drama at Meta AI before 2026?
58% chance
Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?
29% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?
3% chance