
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
5
100Ṁ282027
47%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs 95% confidence to resolve YES. I am probably somewhere around 20% for current models and likely need to see interpretability research suggesting this to get to high confidence.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
At the start of 2030 will I believe that OpenAI had AGI in 2024?
10% chance
When will I believe an AI is conscious with >66% credence?
2030
Will an AI simulate human consciousness by 2100?
75% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
28% chance
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
33% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
43% chance
Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]
64% chance
Will a conscious computer be built before 2030?
12% chance
Will a company lose ownership of an AI due to credible claims of the AI's possible sentience by the end of 2026?
9% chance