@April I'm going to keep buying everything past late 2027 up to wherever the other market is as arbitrage.
@robm but surely you should be buying late 2028 up to where the market is, and buying the ones before it less and less? there's nothing special about late 2027 in particular!
@April the other market seems to be about the state of the world on 1/1/28 (at least that's the consensus in the comments, even if it doesn't match the title). In this market I think late 2027 includes Dec 31. So late 2027 is the special one that matches up, minus 1 day.
(Somebody please tell me if I've got this wrong before I lose too much mana)
@firstuserhere Does this resolve YES for the first period when this is possible, or every period when this is possible?
@robm since it's monotonic, it seems like the market is assuming multiple options can resolve yes. otoh, I don't understand why the last 3 options aren't arbitraged up to match the main market
@Fy This is like training a gorilla to say a few words and imaging that given a few more years you can get it to engage in human conversation.
@DavidBolin I’m on your side but that seems like a particularly bad example. given that a few years ago LLMs could only say a few coherent words at a time and now can engage in conversation 😅
@DylanSlagh It isn't a bad example because it does not, in fact, work with a gorilla, and it isn't going to work with AI generated movies.
@Tomoffer feels like trimming a hedge, going round betting them down and trying to get it to be monotonic...