Elon Musk predicts: "So any given solar panel can do about five times more power in space than on the ground. You also avoid the cost of having batteries to carry you through the night. It’s actually much cheaper to do in space. My prediction is that it will be by far the cheapest place to put AI. It will be space in 36 months or less. Maybe 30 months."
Resolve to YES if this is true by the end of February 2029.
Resolves to NO if it is not.
If the result is not clear to me, this will be evaluated by asking the best-of-three judgment of a panel of the most advanced AIs available at the time from Anthropic, OpenAI and Google, based on the above description and asking for a resolution.
(I realize some people do not like that resolution mechanism but I need to avoid getting bogged down in defining terms and edge cases here.)
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To put 1kg into LEO you are talking about 1000-3000$. This already adds huge initial costs. Now add some problems like having trouble to send engineers up there, the need of shielding against radiation (space graded Microchips can cost around 1000000$ simply because of better shielding, small structures like Microchips don't like strong radiation) and the technological risk of your new cooling design. If you can build it on earth it is in 99,99999% of cases cheaper to do so.
"Will space be the cheapest place to put Elon by end of Feb 2029?"
https://manifold.markets/Lobstertronic/will-space-be-the-cheapest-place-to-qPtuR2pN9q?r=TG9ic3RlcnRyb25pYw
@PeterMcCluskey He does not mean the latter lol he thinks the only serious cost consideration for space is, no batteries (but you would still need batteries, even a dawn-dusk Sun-synchronous orbit results in SOME darkness).
Remember this is the same ketamine addict who thinks space launches will soon be as cheap as cargo planes