Resolution Criteria:

The valuation will be defined either by last funding round valuation, acquisition price, or by market cap (if public). I will use 2024-dollars, adjusting for inflation. An 'AI Lab' must meet BOTH of these criteria: (1) Most of its revenue comes from developing and licensing/selling AI models; and (2) The company must be primarily focused on advancing AI capabilities rather than just applying existing AI to specific domains. A company thatusesAI but whose primary revenue is generated through some other means (e.g., selling ads, AI hardware, services) does not count. I want the value of the labs that build the AI systems. If another lab not listed is more valuable, as long as it derives most of its value from AGI research, it counts.

Motivation and Context:

Some people believe that AI is a bubble and that the valuations of AI labs are over-inflated. Others think AI labs are undervalued because they'll develop AGI and then will be worth trillions of dollars. (As a bit of context, OpenAI's latest valuation was roughly $160 billion.) This question tries to get at the heart of that debate: just how valuable are top AI labs?

Question copied from: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/forecasting-ai-future.html