Yafah Edelman's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.88
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Yafah Edelman bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
- Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NOṀ300
- Will the Mad Investor Chaos thread and all sequels/forks thereof complete by the end of 2022?NOṀ76
- Will there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10?NOṀ46
60%
- Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NOṀ200
- Will there be a planecrash tag in which a character other than Carissa or Keltham says or does something by October 10?NOṀ130
- Will Mira's main GPT-4 Sudoku market ever again drop below 50% and stay there for at least 24 hours?NOṀ100
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%