Will the Mad Investor Chaos thread and all sequels/forks thereof complete by the end of 2022?
resolved Jan 2
Feb 13, 11:30pm: I made this resolve at the wrong time, I will resolve it as N/A unless they add the ability to edit resolve time before then. Feb 13, 11:45pm: "On indefinite hiatus" / "not intended to be completed or worked on further" will also make this resolve to YES. If it's not clear if they'll actually ever get back to it after 2022, I will resolve as N/A. Feb 14, 4:35pm: "Forks" only includes threads that are part of the same continuity. "What if this happened instead" doesn't count. Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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predicted NO

Resolve as NO

bought Ṁ30 of YES

Observation: one of the people predicting YES is one of the authors of the story.

bought Ṁ17 of NO

@josh that trade was a long time ago (before FTX)

predicted NO

@MordecaiWeynberg Yeah, I realized that later, that's why I sold and switched to NO.

I am unclear - is the message from Feb 13, 11:30pm still in effect? And if so, does it imply that, barring a failure in intent or execution of the commitment described therein, this will only be resolved No if Manifold adds resolution time editing?

I can only assume this is the reason why No isn't further ahead right now.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@Nexidava Looks like the close time is correct, so I don't think so. It seems to me that some are buying YES because they think the story will be abandoned.

predicted NO

I am curious about what YES-buyers are thinking here. Are you expecting a really fast completion of the story, or that it will be abandoned?

predicted YES

@Multicore Abandonment is wildly more plausible than finishing in the timeframe, and slowdowns tend to predict abandonment.

sold Ṁ20 of YES
Time marches on, and it begins to feel plausible that it will take through December to complete the end game.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
another clarifying question: does "forks" include threads that are not part of the continuity but feature the same characters, perhaps in "what if this happened instead?" sandboxes?
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Additional clarification: do they have to be *marked* completed or does ⌛ / not updated for a while after some fairly rounded off plot points count?