Alex Heath reports it isn't: https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1727472179283919032

This resolves to YES if, in my best judgment, after 30 days, the story is substantively true. The rules of bounded distrust apply, so misleading does not mean false. Falsehood must change the substantive implications of the information, again as per my best judgment.

EDIT: I want to clarify and make explicit what I will do if we do not get clarity on this. If after 30 days, taking into account the market price and trading history as a key component, I am >90% confident in the right answer, I will resolve at the deadline, even if not 100% sure. If I am not, I will extend the deadline until such time as I am confident.

EDIT 2: I have extended to April 1, 2024, as the date at which I will resolve this even if no substantial new evidence comes to light and trading continues to not be more confident. The only exception would be if we get new expectation of additional evidence coming afterwards. I also could resolve this before then if I ever become >90% confident.

"Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers sent the board of directors a letter warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters."

The previously unreported letter and AI algorithm was a catalyst that caused the board to oust Altman, the poster child of generative AI, the two sources said. Before his triumphant return late Tuesday, more than 700 employees had threatened to quit and join backer Microsoft (MSFT.O) in solidarity with their fired leader.

The sources cited the letter as one factor among a longer list of grievances by the board that led to Altman’s firing. Reuters was unable to review a copy of the letter. The researchers who wrote the letter did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

OpenAI declined to comment.

"According to one of the sources, long-time executive Mira Murati told employees on Wednesday that a letter about the AI breakthrough called Q* (pronounced Q-Star), precipitated the board's actions."

The maker of ChatGPT had made progress on Q*, which some internally believe could be a breakthrough in the startup's search for superintelligence, also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), one of the people told Reuters. OpenAI defines AGI as AI systems that are smarter than humans.

Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company. Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said.