Will planecrash be complete before sunset in Oakland on Friday
510
resolved Apr 24
Resolved
YES

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ584
2Ṁ301
3Ṁ233
4Ṁ108
5Ṁ78
Sort by:
predicted YES

Ok so I have a problem here, in that there's an ambiguity in how I could resolve this market (Leonardo's question: "Does this count epilogues or not")

First and foremost, I want to apologize for having bet in this market without resolving all ambiguity in how I intended to resolve it. In general, I try not to do that, because I think it amounts to inside betting on my own understanding of the resolution criteria. In this case, I failed to avoid doing this, because it didn't occur to me that the resolution criteria were ambiguous.

There's a reasonable argument that in this case I should resolve against my own bets, and try harder next time to avoid putting myself in this position.

I really think if I did that I would be mis-resolving the market on the merits.

Here are my arguments for why:

Glowfic is a collaborative medium, and Planecrash is a collaboration between Eliezer and lintamande. Lintamande considers herself to be done with Planecrash.

My read on Eliezer is that he conceives of himself as having a positive obligation to finish what he starts, to not to leave WIPs lying around. My further read of him is that he considers this obligation discharged wrt Planecrash, that he considers writing an epilogue to be supererogatory.

There was talk of a wrap party on the Eliezerfic server. While it was eventually decided against, no one argued that a wrap party should wait for the publication of an epilogue.

The currently published conclusion of Planecrash ties off the outstanding mysteries and narrative threads in, IMO, a satisfying way. While we all might enjoy spending a little more time in the Planecrash universe, I don't think the work as currently published requires any addition.

@MichaelBlume I posted in the prediction-markets subforum of the planecrash discord asking about this kind of thing (https://discord.com/channels/936151692041400361/1022878418653679707/1093658254984364064) and there seemed to be broad consensus that the epilogue should be considered 'part of the story'.

predicted YES

@AndrewHyer yeah, I think the broad consensus is just wrong here

@MichaelBlume As a pragmatic resolution to this specific market without worrying about pseudo-insider-trading, it might be feasible for you to extend/reopen the market, quickly sell out of your position at the market price, and then resolve once your position is cashed out.

(I have no position in this market and do not stand to benefit/lose either way)

predicted NO

@MichaelBlume when I bought NO I was mostly betting on EY writing an epilogue / more tags that in some central way belong to the story. If EY indeed considers the epilogue to be supererogatory, and is not just busy with way more important things, then I am fine with the market resolving to YES in the sense that back then I would have still bought NO even with a more clarified resolution criterion (maybe except for me paying more attention to the right things and reconsidering my odds in time, but, uh, whatevs).

@MichaelBlume As a non-better, I'd suggest finding a way to resolve the conflict of interest that doesn't require a specific judgment. Donate the mana, or donate with a multiplier and rebuy and commit to making it a counterfactual donation, or something. Donate it to something not-your-usual-charity (like Manifold itself? IDK) if you want.

The aversion to profiting off the ambiguity seems good to me; but I'm hoping there's a way to accomplish that while still rewarding the predictors who got it right.

Or you could retroactively decide that the epilog was not, apparently, going to happen and that postponing the decision made it unambiguous by luck rather than design.

Or, worst case, I guess you could resolve N/A.

And once you've figured out that plan, then resolve as best you're able. But that's just my opinion as a random bystander.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel the effort of doing that is higher than I want to ask of @MichaelBlume . I am fine with resolving YES, it's not that much mana that I'd loose. (I hold 1000 NO, a bot holds ~400, others hold ~800 NO).

predicted NO

Does this count epilogues or not?

predicted YES

@LeonardoTaglialegne I assumed it did, and sold.