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MANIFOLD
What company will be the first to put up a commercial space station?
3
แน€100แน€130
resolved Jun 17
ResolvedN/A
Resolved
N/A
Vast
Resolved
N/A
Axiom
Resolved
N/A
Blue Origin
Resolved
N/A
Sierra Space
Resolved
N/A
Voyager
Resolved
N/A
SpaceX
Resolved
N/A
Nanoracks
Resolved
N/A
Northrop Grumman
Resolved
N/A
Other

"Space station" is defined as a free flying object in orbit around earth that at least 1 person is brought to. That person spends at least 24 hours on the station and then that person returns to earth while the station remains in orbit.

"Commercial" is defined as built by a private company or a consortium of private companies that isn't fully government sponsored and can conduct business independent of a national space agency.

https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/nasa-selects-companies-to-develop-commercial-destinations-in-space/

This could resolve to multiple winners if there is a JV or significant collaboration between two of the listed entities. "Other" will only win if the station was built by entities not on the list.

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Why is Vast resolved yes?

I realized I made this one wrong so made a new one here: https://manifold.markets/Wombat3/what-company-will-be-the-first-to-p-21wyiudsgm

And closed this one

@Wombat3 Maybe resolve it N/A? It's currently open for trading which may confuse people

@mods Creator appears to be inactive, I believe this market (including the option already resolved YES) should be resolved N/A

The creator accidentally created this market as an unlinked MC instead of a linked MC, and created a new market to fix this which they linked above. However they failed to close or N/A this market

I'm unsure why Vast was resolved YES but Vast has not in fact put up a commercial space station

@Nat agreed. done