Will Donald Trump die of natural causes or other causes in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies from any cause (natural or otherwise) at any point during the calendar year 2026. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, NPR, etc.) reporting his death. This market resolves NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2026.

Background

Trump is 79 years old and the oldest person in American history to be inaugurated as president. According to Social Security Administration data, a 79-year-old male has an average life expectancy of an additional 8.6 years. Trump's parents both lived long lives; his father lived to age 93 and his mother passed away at 88. Trump's most recent physical in October 2025 determined he is in "exceptional health," with his cardiac age found to be approximately 14 years younger than his chronological age. However, he was diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency in July after experiencing mild swelling in his lower legs.

Considerations

Concerns about Trump's age and health have risen since the start of his second term, with most Americans saying his health and age are affecting his ability to govern. While official medical reports characterize his health as excellent, bruises were spotted on multiple occasions on Trump's hands between December 2024 and March 2025, which generated speculation about his health.