When will Donald Trump die?
18
1kṀ8522036
20%
Before 2026
30%
Before 2027
31%
Before 2028
51%
Before 2029
61%
Before 2030
61%
Before 2031
61%
Before 2032
63%
Before 2033
65%
Before 2034
80%
Before 2035
This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES.
Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a short delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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