When will Donald Trump die?
46
1.2kṀ55432036
4%
Before 2026
10%
Before 2027
15%
Before 2028
20%
Before 2029
32%
Before 2030
43%
Before 2031
55%
Before 2032
65%
Before 2033
74%
Before 2034
76%
Before 2035
85%
Before 2036
92%
Before 2037
This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES.
Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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