When will Donald Trump die?
72
Ṁ1.2kṀ14k2036
4%
Before 2027
8%
Before 2028
11%
Before 2029
19%
Before 2030
32%
Before 2031
43%
Before 2032
54%
Before 2033
62%
Before 2034
76%
Before 2035
82%
Before 2036
83%
Before 2037
This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES.
Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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