When will Donald Trump die?
36
1.2kṀ36452036
5%
Before 2026
16%
Before 2027
30%
Before 2028
21%
Before 2029
38%
Before 2030
44%
Before 2031
52%
Before 2032
62%
Before 2033
72%
Before 2034
74%
Before 2035
87%
Before 2036
89%
Before 2037
This is a cumulative probability market. Therefore, for example, if Trump dies in 2027, "Before 2026" and "Before 2027" resolve NO, and "Before 2028", "Before 2029", etc. will all resolve YES.
Answers will resolve early when time runs out and Trump has not yet died. For example, "Before 2026" will resolve NO if Trump has not died and 2026 has begun. There may be a delay before resolution to confirm that Trump has not died.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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