Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026. Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources. The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.

Background

Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison. A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.

Considerations

Four sitting U.S. presidents have been assassinated in American history: Abraham Lincoln (1865), James A. Garfield (1881), William McKinley (1901), and John F. Kennedy (1963). No sitting president has been killed since Kennedy in 1963, a span of over 60 years. Modern Secret Service protection and security protocols differ substantially from those of earlier eras.